The coming days

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A general election in Germany, and other news

• A GENERAL election in Germany on Sunday September 27th looks set to return Angela Merkel for another stint as chancellor. But Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s Social Democratic Party, which has ruled as part of a grand coalition, is hoping to prevent her forming a new coalition with the Free Democratic Party after the vote. Ms Merkel's reluctance to say what the new coalition would actually stand for may encourage some voters to support Mr Steimeier instead.

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• BAN KI-MOON, taking advantage of the presence of many world leaders for the UN General Assembly, hosts a summit on the environment on Tuesday September 22nd, as a part of the build up to the Copenhagen world climate conference in December. Of most significance is the presence of China’s president, Hu Jintao, who will unveil the country’s latest plans for tackling global warming.

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• BARACK OBAMA has a busy week at the UN General Assembly. He addresses the body on Wednesday September 23rd the day after an expected round of meetings involving Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority. Mr Obama’s strategy for the Middle East will no doubt come under scrutiny in the usual annual diatribe against America and the West delivered to the UN by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s leader, on Wednesday.

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• LEADERS of the G20 group of rich and developing countries take part in a two-day summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, beginning on Thursday September 24th. The host, Mr Obama, is expected to urge his counterparts to stick with co-ordinated stimulus measures to provide a continuing boost for slowly recovering economies. The French leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, is keen to push the idea of Tobin taxes. Other issues high on the agenda are the regulation of the global financial system and the vexed question of how to moderate bonuses handed to bankers.

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Marking a year of financial turmoil, on the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers

• THE first anniversary of the demise of Lehman Brothers falls on Tuesday September 15th. The bankruptcy of the Wall Street institution made it clear that the world’s financial system had more serious problems than merely frozen credit markets. After two decades of expansion and deregulation, many of the world’s banks were dangerously undercapitalised. In the resulting tumult firms such as Merrill Lynch were taken over and others saw their reputations badly tarnished. Many bankers have lost their jobs but a widespread sense of outrage at the excesses of the financial industry remains. Governments are still busy trying to tackle the outsize bonuses that persuaded bankers to load the system with the toxic securities that crippled the world’s banks.

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• A GENERAL election is held in Norway on Monday September 14th. Opinion polls suggest that the race is wide open, although a change of government is the more likely outcome, with a coalition of centre-left parties giving way to a coalition of centre-right ones. Particular attention will be paid to the success of the populist and anti-immigrant Progress Party, which has fared well in recent years. Unlike the rest of Europe, Norway's economy is doing reasonably well on the back of plentiful oil exports.

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• A BRITISH court is set to sentence seven men who were found guilty of various offences related to a 2006 plot to destroy transatlantic airliners with bombs constructed from liquid explosives. Had the plan succeeded perhaps seven aircraft bound for America from Heathrow would have been blown up and thousands of lives lost. The conviction justified a huge police operation to catch the bombers and tough measures to restrict liquids in airline hand luggage (to the irritation of most flyers). But the radicalisation of young British Muslims is still of great concern.

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• THE world's carmakers will show off their latest models at the Frankfurt Motor Show, which starts on Wednesday 15th September. As well as an array of new plug-in hybrid cars and other greener motors, Rolls-Royce will unveil its new Ghost, an entry-level model costing a mere £165,000 ($275,000). But much of the trade talk will centre on the recent announcement that General Motors is to sell Opel/Vauxhall, its European arm, to a consortium headed by Magna, a Canadian car-parts firm. The vast array of over-polished show vehicles at Frankfurt will merely serve to remind Europe's carmakers that their industry is plagued by overcapacity, which Magna's takeover of Opel will do little to rectify.

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Congress reconvenes, Barack Obama gives a speech on health-care reform, and other news

• ON TUESDAY September 8th Congress and President Barack Obama return to business after their August break. Mr Obama is scheduled to address both houses of Congress on Wednesday on the subject of health-care reform. Despite the increasingly bitter debate about health care, Mr Obama shows no sign so far of abandoning his (stated) preference for bipartisan lawmaking on that, climate change and other matters.

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• THE board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna from Monday September 7th. Under discussion will be the nuclear programmes of Iran and Syria as well as nuclear security and nuclear terrorism. A recent IAEA report on Iran said that it had slowed its production of enriched uranium. America will be watching the IAEA's pronouncements carefully as it considers whether to impose tougher sanctions on Iran later in September.

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• THE World Economic Forum's third annual meeting of “New Champions” begins in Dalian in China on Thursday September 10th. The “summer Davos” is a shadow of the winter meeting in Switzerland, but with China emerging from the economic crisis so clearly strengthened, it may excite particular interest this year. The meeting will focus on ways of relauncing economic growth.

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• A TAIWANESE court will rule in a corruption case against Chen Shui-bian, a former president of Taiwan who is charged with corruption and embezzlement, on Friday September 11th. Whatever the outcome, many have been heartened that corruption, long endemic in Taiwanese politics, is being attacked and that a former president can stand trial like a common citizen.

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• FRIDAY September 11th marks eight years since the attacks by al-Qaeda on New York and Washington, DC. The memory of the attacks is still potent, but the anniversary will only briefly serve as a reminder of why America and its allies are at war in Afghanistan.

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Japanese voters go to the polls and other news

• AMERICA'S successful car-scrappage scheme, dubbed “cash for clunkers”, will be suspended on Monday August 24th. The $3 billion budget allocated to the popular rebate programme has run out just a month after its launch. Consumers were encouraged to buy new cars with the offer of up to $4,500 off the cost of a new, more fuel-efficient vehicle to replace a gas-guzzler. Sales of new vehicles are likely to exceed the 1m mark in August, a monthly figure not surpassed in the past year.

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• FRANCE'S bank bosses will get a drubbing over pay in a meeting with the president, Nicolas Sarkozy, on Tuesday August 25th. The French prime minister, François Fillon, told off senior bankers at the beginning of the month when it emerged that BNP Paribas, the country's biggest bank, had set aside €1 billion ($1.4 billion) for bonuses so far in 2009. France introduced rules in February to ensure that the structure of bankers’ compensation does not encourage excessive risk-taking. French bankers may have complaints of their own for Mr Sarkozy. Many other countries have failed to implement similarly tough rules on bankers’ pay and some foreign competitors are once again offering the type of multi-year guaranteed bonuses that are blamed for brewing trouble.

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• THE White House’s biannual budget review is set for release on Tuesday August 25th. The report will update the Obama administration’s economic and budget forecasts for America with revised estimates for GDP growth, unemployment and future deficits. It will put the deficit for 2009 at around $1.58 trillion, some $262 billion less than forecast in May because of the reduced costs of economic stabilisation. This has meant that the administration can scrap a $250 billion contingency fund to help the banks.

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• JAPAN'S voters, going to the polls on Sunday August 30th, may opt for a change of government. The Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for half a century (save for a brief spell in 1993), is under threat from Yukio Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Opinion polls give the DPJ a two-to-one margin over the LDP as Japan’s electorate are being won over by Mr Haotyama’s Obama-esque promise of “change” to cope with Japan’s ageing population, the low birth-rate and a dangerously lopsided, export-oriented economy. But Mr Aso has questioned the DPJ’s ability to pay for expensive campaign promises, such as a hefty child allowance to push up the birth rate, heavily subsidised schooling and income support to farmers.

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A presidential election in Afghanistan, and other news

• PRESIDENTIAL and provincial elections are set to take place in Afghanistan on Thursday August 20th. Many Afghans are disenchanted with the current president, Hamid Karzai, who has ruled the country since America ousted the Taliban in 2001. Mr Karzai has benefited from the absence of a popular candidate of Pushtun origin, Afghanistan’s biggest group and Mr Karzai’s too, and has also struck deals with non-Pushtun warlords. His main challenger is Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister of mixed Pushtun-Tajik blood (but considered Tajik). Allegedly flush with Iranian money, he has campaigned hard. But Mr Karzai is still likely to win. If he fails to secure an outright majority then a run-off election will be held on October 1st.

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• THE leading candidates in Japan’s general election hold a televised debate on Monday August 17th before the campaign period formally starts the next day. The two main contenders have already faced one another in a debate that was dominated by arguments about the best way to revive the economy. Polls suggest that Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan is set to make big gains, possibly ejecting Taro Aso's government and ending five decades of almost uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party.

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• THE man convicted of using a bomb to bring down a passenger jet over Lockerbie in Scotland in 1988, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, may be released from jail on compassionate grounds. Mr Megrahi, who has continually protested his innocence, was sentenced to 27 years in jail for murdering 270 people by blowing up Pan-Am flight 103, Britain’s worst terrorist attack. Mr Megrahi, who has terminal cancer, will be sent back to Libya. Libya’s leader, Muammar Qaddafi, might claim the release as a triumph, shortly before he celebrates the 40th anniversary of his coming to power in September 1969.

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• THE board of General Motors may decide the fate of Opel in the coming week. Magna International, a Canadian car-parts maker, and Sberbank, a Russian bank, have apparently sweetened their offer for GM's European unit and are the front-runners to take control of Opel. Magna's rival, RHJ, a Brussels-based industrial holding company that has links with Ripplewood, an American private-equity firm, has reportedly offered more but Germany's government is backing the Magna consortium's bid because politicians and union leaders expect it would preserve more jobs.

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A summit in South America, and other news

• A MEETING of the fledgling Union of South American Nations in Quito, Ecuador’s capital, on Monday August 10th, will be unusually lively, demonstrating the disunity that exists within the regional block. Alvaro Uribe, Colombia’s president, has said that he will not attend after a wave of criticism over his decision to allow American troops to use military bases in his country to pursue the battle against drug trafficking. He got a mixed response from his counterparts on a recent whirlwind tour of South America. Bolivia's Evo Morales and Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez both blasted the plan as the first stage of widespread American military operations in the region.

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• A MUCH-DELAYED verdict may be delivered at last on Tuesday August 11th in the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi for breaking the terms of her house arrest in Myanmar. The leader of the country's pro-democracy movement is charged with harbouring an uninvited American at her home in early May, the excuse the regime needed to prosecute her afresh ahead of a planned election next year. It seems unlikely that anything but a guilty verdict will be delivered by the court so that the authorities can ensure that Miss Suu Kyi remains firmly under lock and key.

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• THE latest efforts to bring China and Taiwan closer together will feature swimmers from both countries. On Saturday August 15th several Chinese and Taiwanese will make a crossing between the Chinese port of Xiamen and a nearby island held by Taiwan, in the hope of reinforcing goodwill. The aquatic activities coincide with renewed aspirations for a free trade pact. The two sides have quietly concluded months of unofficial negotiations and Taiwan says it wants formal negotiations to start in October.

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Iraq's Kurds go to the polls, and other news

• THE chairman of America's Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, delivers his semi-annual monetary-policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, DC, on Tuesday July 21st. Mr Bernanke may shed more light on how far he believes that America is bouncing back from the financial crisis and economic downturn. Mr Obama recently spoke of signs that the “economic storm” is waning and Timothy Geithner, his treasury secretary, has talked about “very encouraging” indications that confidence is returning to the financial system. The administration has decided not to bail out CIT, a struggling commercial lender, reinforcing its own confidence that the financial system can withstand a bankruptcy filing that could come soon.

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• BARACK OBAMA is set to meet Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq’s prime minister, in Washington on Wednesday July 22nd. Discussion are sure to centre on the security situation in Iraq since American forces withdrew from the country's towns and cities last month, as part of a security pact that will see American troops withdraw for the country in 2011. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, is travelling to Thailand where she will attend a meeting of regional foreign ministers. The twin threats of swine flu and North Korea are sure to head the agenda.

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• A VERDICT may be delivered in the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi for breaking the terms of her house arrest after closing arguments on Friday July 24th. The leader of Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement is likely to be found guilty of harbouring an uninvited American at her home, the excuse the regime needed to prosecute her afresh ahead of a planned election next year. Myanmar recently agreed to grant an amnesty to political prisoners before the election, at the request of Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general. Even if it does make good on the promise, the chances of Miss Suu Kyi’s release look slim.

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• IRAQ'S Kurds go to the polls on Saturday July 25th to vote for a regional assembly and a president. The Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have dominated Kurdish politics since the region gained self-rule in 1991 and control of Kirkuk and other oil-rich areas remains an important issue. But the two parties have come under increasingly criticism of late, accused of corruption and cronyism and they face a challenge in this election from a new group, Goran (Change), though polls suggest that its impact will be limited.

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• PAKISTAN'S army may be poised to continue its battle against Taliban forces, this time in Waziristan. The tribal area adjoins the country’s lawless North-Western Frontier Province, where a previous offensive is in its final stage. Some of the 2.4m displaced by the fighting in the Swat Valley, which began in April, have started to return home under army protection. But confronting the Taliban, under its commander Baitullah Mehsud, in remote and mountainous Waziristan, on the border with Afghanistan, is a tricky prospect. Mr Mehsud may have as many as 30,000 fighters at his disposal so a campaign may have to wait until American forces are deployed over the border in Afghanistan to support Pakistani troops.

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Bernard Madoff is sentenced for a massive fraud, and other news

• America's Supreme Court will hold its last session this week before it breaks for a summer holiday. This is usually the moment when the court hands down decisions in cases that have attracted the most controversy. This year it is expected to rule on whether the appeals court was right in upholding the constitutionality of a firefighters' test in Connecticut, in which white firemen were denied promotion because no black candidates did well enough in the test to warrant consideration. The case is particularly contentious because one of the appeals-court judges who delivered the ruling is Sonia Sotomayor, Barack Obama's nominee to sit on the Supreme Court. The Senate starts deliberating over her nomination in mid-July.

• Bernard Madoff, who has pleaded guilty to running a gigantic Ponzi scheme of unprecedented boldness, faces sentencing on Monday June 29th. His $65 billion fraud, dating at least as far back as the 1980s, used money from new investors to cover redemptions for old ones. Mr Madoff’s lawyers suggest that 12 years inside is a fair punishment for the 71-year-old financier. Many of his victims are pressing for a far harsher sentence, perhaps even 150 years in prison.

• American combat troops are set to hand over control of the country’s towns and cities to Iraqi security forces on Tuesday June 30th. Though some advisers will remain most of America’s 130,000 troops will stay in their bases until the end of 2011, the date set for a full withdrawal. Iraq’s government has declared a national holiday in celebration but fears remain that the absence of American forces could allow the insurgency to become more intense once more.

• The Lisbon treaty to reform the European Union's institutions faces another hurdle on Tuesday June 30th. Germany’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on whether the treaty is compatible with the country’s constitution. Though the court is unlikely to reject it the treaty must clear more obstacles. The Irish hold another referendum later this year, after voters rejected the treaty in 2008.

• Diners and quaffers in France will get a welcome boost on Wednesday July 1st when VAT on bills in restaurants and cafes is slashed from 19.6% to 5.5%. France hopes to encourage tourists and locals to dine out more bringing extra employment to the catering industry.

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The fallout from the upheaval in Iran, and other news

• A WEEK after the results of presidential election were announced, handing victory to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Following days of huge protests by opposition supporters and reports that a number were killed, a political storm will continue to disrupt Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has unequivocally declared that the result is valid and so far has only conceded that some votes could be recounted. Fierce competition for power between rival members of the regime is most likely to determine the outcome. Restrictions on reporting from the country have been circumvented, to some extent, by protesters' use of mobile phones and the internet. Protesters will watch warily for signs that such services are being closed down.

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• THE French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, will address a joint session of parliament for the first time on Monday June 22nd. A change to the constitution, which supposedly bolsters the power of parliament, allows the first joint meeting of the “Congress”, in Versailles, although some MPs are planning to boycott the event in protest against the change. Mr Sarkozy is expected to prepare voters for the impact of a long recession and rising unemployment, while also making the case for reforms to improve competitivenes, for example with a proposal of more retail trading on Sundays, the introduction of a fourth mobile telephone licence and a plan to raise the general retirement age. Expect a mix of liberal reforms with plenty of government intervention in the economy.

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• AMERICA'S president, Barack Obama, meets the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Washington on Thursday June 25th. The two leaders share interests in the war in Afghanistan, the ongoing upheaval in Iran, the need to handle a newly-assertive Russia and especially in encouraging global economic recovery. Ms Merkel, however, is also preoccupied by a general election scheduled for the autumn.

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• IN MYANMAR (formerly Burma), the leader of the pro-democracy movement, Aung San Suu Kyi, may learn whether her prolonged imprisonment will be extended on Friday June 26th. A court is expected to deliver its verdict after her trial for breaking the terms of her house arrest. In May an uninvited American arrived at Ms Suu Kyi's home, delivering an excuse to the regime of Myanmar to prosecute her afresh, ahead of a planned election next year. Although diplomats and a few journalists were allowed to observe a part of the trial, few expect the verdict, when it eventually comes, to go against the wishes of the government.

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The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China meet to discuss the economy, and other news

• LEADERS of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known collectively as the BRIC countries, will gather for their first official summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on Tuesday June 16th. China and India have continued to grow reasonably quickly despite the global downturn, and although Brazil is in recession many expect it to recover soon. Of the four economies Russia, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, has been the worst affected. The leaders may discuss long-term plans to find an alternative to the dollar as a global currency. Another possible topic for consideration is trade in commodities: China and India are heavy importers of many commodities such as oil; Russia and Brazil are big exporters of raw materials.

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• IT IS a busy week for those keen on reform of financial regulation. On Wednesday June 17th Tim Geithner, the treasury secretary, and Barack Obama, are expected to announce reforms to America's regulatory system, with many expecting the creation of a new body to oversee other regulators. In Britain, too, the chancellor of the exchequer, Alistair Darling, will give a speech on financial reform, on Wednesday. Later in the week leaders of the European Union will discuss the same subject at a summit.

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• CONGRESSIONAL leaders are expected to attend a meeting at the White House on Wednesday June 17th to discuss prospects for immigration reform in America. President Barack Obama and Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, are keen to pass a reform bill by the end of the year that would deal with the 12m or so migrants who are in America without papers. Opponents of such reform argue that it would amount to granting an amnesty to illegal aliens and would encourage others, but bringing such workers out of the shadows could boost tax collection, lessen abuse of workers and spur growth.

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• GREENLANDERS take another step towards full independence from Denmark on Sunday June 21st, the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. The 56,000 residents will be granted an expanded version of home rule, after a referendum in 2008 showed more than 75% support for the territory taking over responsibility for police, justice and security. In time Greenland, which has been ruled by Denmark since the 18th century and which continues to receive hefty subsidies, is expected to claim status as an independent country. Its large deposits of minerals, including oil and precious stones, could make the sparsely populated land particularly rich.

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A presidential election in Iran, and other news

• IRANIANS go to the polls on Friday June 12th to elect a president. The incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is tipped for another term in office despite widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the country’s economy and doubts in some quarters about his belligerent foreign policy and nuclear ambitions. Mir Hosein Mousavi, a moderate rival, poses the greatest threat to Mr Ahmadinejad. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, then a run-off election would be held on June 19th.

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• AMERICA'S special envoy on climate change, Todd Stern, is set to lead a group of his country’s environmental policymakers on a visit to China beginning on Monday June 8th. The purpose of his trip is to persuade China, a leading polluter, to commit to firm reductions on emissions of greenhouse gases before a meeting in Copenhagen in December when governments are supposed to thrash out an international treaty on global warming to replace the Kyoto protocol.

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• AFTER bankruptcy for two of America’s big carmakers the recriminations begin. The Senate banking committee is set to hold hearings on Wednesday June 10th into the actions of Barack Obama’s car-industry task force. The government will acquire a 60% stake in GM and a smaller one in Chrysler. Lawmakers are demanding more oversight over the spending of tens of billions of taxpayers’ dollars to bail out Detroit. The Obama administration is desperate to stop Congress impeding the fast-track bankruptcy process that it considers to be the only hope for ensuring GM’s future.

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• EXPECT Europeans to keep a close eye on Latvia, where a recent failed auction of government bills may have fatally weakened the commitment to its currency peg with the euro. The Baltic country has huge foreign debts that it is struggling to finance, and was forced to go to the IMF for support in December. The fund has withheld a tranche of an agreed bail-out loan, part-financed by the EU, because of a ballooning budget deficit. Analysts want to see whether the IMF relents: a devaluation by Latvia could unsettle other economies in the region.

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Elections for the European Parliament and other news

• EUROPEANS go to the polls on for elections to the European Parliament that start on Thursday June 4th with Dutch and British voters the first to make their choices. The remainder of the voters among the European Union’s 500m people in 27 countries cast their votes over the next three days. Enthusiasm is generally low for European elections. Moreover, in many countries voters use the election to send a message to national governments rather than concentrating on EU-wide issues.

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• BARACK OBAMA will visit the Middle East to discuss with regional leaders the new administration’s efforts to broker a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians and the threat form Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On Thursday June 4th Mr Obama is set to make a speech in Cairo addressing the Muslim world; he hopes to repair the damage to relations inflicted under his predecessor, George Bush.

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• THE deadline for General Motors to prove that it can make the necessary restructuring efforts outside of bankruptcy falls on Monday June 1st. The carmaker is almost certain to seek chapter 11 protection to complete a “pre-packaged” bankruptcy procedure that will see it pass into the ownership of America’s government and its union. GM’s creditors have already turned down a deal that would have seen them get a mere 10% stake in the car company in return for their loans of $27 billion. But it is far from clear that they can expect to do any better in a bankruptcy court.

For background, see article

• AMERICA'S treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, goes to China on Monday June 1st to talk to the country’s president, prime minister and other big-wigs about economic relations between the two powers. Mr Geithner caused upset in China during his confirmation hearing by suggesting that the country had manipulated its currency to America’s detriment. Mr Geithner is unlikely to repeat the charges as a graver concern, China’s continued willingness to buy American government debt, is in some question.

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• China marks an unpleasant anniversary on Thursday June 4th: it is 20 years since the massacre in Tiananmen Square that brought to an end six weeks of pro-democracy protests in Beijing. China’s army crushed popular protests, killing hundreds. Dissidents claim that China has again launched a crackdown ahead of the sensitive anniversary.

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• WORK on the successor to the Kyoto treaty on climate change continues in Bonn on Monday June 1st. The meeting of senior figures from the world's governments is the latest in a long line of talks in the run-up to a UN summit in Copenhagen in December. A row about how to share cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions may be avoided this time, pending the passage of a climate-change bill through America's Congress. Talks may instead focus on how best to channel funds earmarked for fighting climate change to developing countries.

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A telling moment within the protracted crash of General Motors

• GENERAL MOTORS is set for bankruptcy if, as seems likely, bondholders reject a deal with the car company by the deadline of Tuesday May 26th. Creditors have been offered 10% of the new GM in return for $27 billion they have lent to the American car giant. If more than 90% of bondholders agree to the terms, which appear ungenerous besides the stakes of 50% for the government and 40% for the unions, GM will avoid Chapter 11 protection for the time being and begin what the Obama administration hopes would be a swift restructuring.

For background, see article

• THE American government's much-anticipated plans to revamp the Securities and Exchange Commission could be unveiled. The country's financial regulator, charged with overseeing Wall Street and safeguarding American investors, has been heaped with criticism for its failure to foresee last year's financial meltdown and its inability to detect the multi-billion Ponzi scheme run by Bernie Madoff. A new regulatory regime could see more powers handed to the Federal Reserve and the creation of a new agency to protect investors' interests.

For background, see article

• THE leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, arrives in Washington for a meeting with Barack Obama on Thursday May 28th to discuss the chances of peace with Israel. The visit comes just over a week after Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, made the same trip. Mr Obama has suggested that America will shortly unveil a comprehensive peace plan for the entire region, which will link efforts to deal with Iran's nuclear threat with a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

For background, see article

• AFTER a World Business Summit on Climate Change at the weekend a smaller but potentially important meeting takes place in Bergen on Wednesday May 27th. A conference convened by Norway's government and the International Energy Agency will discuss carbon capture and storage. The technology aims to remove and store carbon from power stations to stop it entering the atmosphere and contributing to global warming. But the technique, which governments and environmentalists hope could limit global warming, is untried on a commercial scale and is still extremely costly.

For background, see article

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Nuclear-arms talks between America and Russia get under way, and other news

• RUSSIA and America begin talks on Monday May 18th about replacing a treaty on curbing nuclear arms, which expires in December. Russia is keen to reduce declared numbers of nuclear warheads because its are in a poor state of repair and will become unusable anyway. Barack Obama, unlike his predecessor, George Bush, is also inclined to reduce the number of America’s warheads. A new treaty would set up an enhanced monitoring regime and might also tackle the issue of reducing the number of deployed warheads as well as stockpiles held in reserve.

For background, see article

• ISRAEL'S prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is set to visit Barack Obama in Washington on Monday May 18th to discuss the various troubles of the Middle East. Both sides have been batting carefully nuanced statements at each other in advance of the meeting. Mr Obama is likely to reiterate America's support for a “two-state” solution to resolve the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians; so far Mr Netanyahu has stopped short of this approach. They will also doubtless touch on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the dangers posed to the region.

For background, see article

• THE awful state of Japan’s economy will become clearer on Wednesday May 20th, with the release of GDP figures for the first quarter. The country’s economy is likely to have contracted in the three months to the end of March by a record 16% at an annualised rate. A catastrophic collapse in exports and plunging consumer spending is to blame. But wafer thin inventories and a whiff of returning confidence as a stimulus package takes effect could mean that the economy begins to grow again in the current quarter, albeit from a low base.

For background, see article

• A BUSY week is in prospect for the EU’s summiteers. A Chinese delegation, headed by Wen Jiabao, the country’s prime minister, arrives in Prague on Wednesday May 20th—the Czech Republic holds the rotating presidency of the EU. The EU-China summit was postponed in December because of Chinese anger over a meeting between France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and the Dalai Lama. The next day a two-day EU-Russia summit is set to begin in the remote city of Khabarovsk near the Chinese border. Energy and security are set to top the agenda.

For background, see article

• CANDIDATES for Iran's presidential election in June will be announced during the week. Around 475 people, including 42 women, have put their names forward but few are likely to make it onto the ballot. All candidates must seek the approval of the 12-member Guardian Council, a body of conservative clerics and lawyers, and only a few are expected to get the nod. Reformists are likely to suffer most in the vetting process. Nevertheless, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's current president, will probably face a challenge from two reformists, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, as well as Mohsen Rezaie, another conservative.

For background, see article

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Results from India's election, and other news

•COUNTRIES wishing to make territorial claims to the seabed must do so to the United Nations commission on the limits of the continental shelf by Wednesday May 13th. Under a UN convention countries can claim control of the seabed up to 350 nautical miles (650km)from their coast if they can prove the ocean floor is connected to their continental shelf. Over 30 claims have been lodged so far and the commission expects more. The Arctic in particular is subject to several competing claims by countries hoping to get their hands on the oil and minerals that could lurk beneath the waves.

For background, see article

•THE European Commission is expected to issue its long-awaited decision in an antitrust case against Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker as early as next week. The Commission argues that Intel, using a system of discounts and rebates, encouraged computer-makers and retailers to sell only a limited proportion of machines powered by chips made by AMD, Intel’s only remaining serious competitor in microprocessors for PCs. Intel is likely to face a whopping fine of at least €1 billion ($1.3 billion).

For background, see article

•RESULTS in India’s month-long election are announced on Saturday May 16th. The conclusion of a formidably complex election with over 700m registered voters and 300 parties is likely to be a parliamentary coalition between a gaggle of fractious smaller parties and either Congress, the incumbent ruling party, or the Hindu-nationalist BJP. While smaller parties are liable to put national interests behind regional or religious concerns they are also useful in taming more extreme policies.

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• THE pope, on a week-long tour of the Middle East, will arrive in Israel on Monday May 11th. Benedict XVI's visit will also include a trip to the Palestinian territories. The gaffe-prone pontiff has infuriated Muslims and Jews during his time in office by quoting a Byzantine emperor with unpleasant views on Muhammad and lifting the excommunication of a Holocaust-denying bishop. So his journey as a “pilgrim of peace” may help to rebuild his reputation in the region.

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Watching for a pandemic of swine flu, and other news

• THE impact on the world of an outbreak of swine flu in Mexico could become clearer. So far the new strain of flu has claimed the lives of at least 16 Mexicans (though over 160 are suspected to have died of it). The virus has been spread around the world—over 650 cases have been recorded in 16 countries so far—by visitors to Mexico who have returned home with the infection. Questions remain over whether the new virus is a dangerous pandemic in the making or whether Mexican victims were particularly susceptible. Cases beyond Mexico so far seem mild and thankfully the new virus seems to be treatable with existing anti-viral drugs.

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• THE battle against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the safe-haven of the tribal regions on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan will be at the top of the agenda in Washington, DC. Barack Obama is set to welcome Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, on Wednesday May 6th and Thursday May 7th. Pakistan’s army has recently launched an assault against the Taliban to check its spreading influence near the capital, Islamabad. In Afghanistan the Taliban have pledged to counter an American-led surge with a wave of renewed attacks aimed a destabilising Mr Karzai’s beleaguered government.

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• RESULTS of “stress tests” by regulators on America’s 19 largest banks will be made public on Thursday May 7th. The tests, to determine the banks’ capital requirements if economic conditions deteriorate further, should give an idea about which American banks are on the mend and which will need more help. Both the banks and investors are anxiously awaiting the results. Leaked reports suggest that six banks or more, including Bank of America and Citigroup, need to raise more capital.

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• JACOB ZUMA, leader of the African National Congress (ANC), will be inaugurated as South Africa’s fourth post-apartheid president on Saturday May 9th. The ANC won a sizeable victory in general elections in April, receiving nearly two-thirds of the total vote, only a slight drop on its 2004 performance. Mr Zuma’s main concern will be the economy, if recession hits South Africa for the first time in more than a decade with the country facing high rates of unemployment, crime and inequality. On the same day Mr Zuma is likely to name his cabinet.

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Barack Obama marks his hundredth day in office, and other news

• BANK OF AMERICA'S embattled boss, Ken Lewis, faces an awkward week. Thousands of taxpayers are set to protest outside branches of the bank on Tuesday April 28th ahead of what promises to be a heated annual shareholders meeting the next day. He has come under mounting pressure to resign after allegations surfaced that he was threatened with the sack by the Bush administration unless his bank went ahead with the acquisition of Merrill Lynch in September. As a result he failed to tell shareholders of the awful state of Merrill's finances.

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• BARACK OBAMA completes 100 days in office on Wednesday April 29th. He is set to hold a “town-hall” meeting in St Louis, Missouri, as all-round judgment is passed on the new president. There is much to ponder. Mr Obama has responded to the credit crunch and economic crisis with bank bail-outs and stimulus packages. He has fundamentally shifted the previous administration’s policy on climate change and is attempting to remodel relations with Russia, Iran and Cuba. So far, however, has made little progress on health-care reform, which was supposed to be his main domestic policy beyond the economy.

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• THE French parliament is expected to vote on Wednesday April 29th on a controversial bill backed by the government that aims to put paid to internet piracy. The legislation, which was rejected first time around after too few government supporters turned up, would force internet-service providers to police the internet on behalf of copyright owners. Users caught downloading files illegally would receive two warnings before losing broadband access for up to a year and going on a blacklist to stop them subscribing elsewhere. Britain (and other countries) is considering similar laws to co-opt ISPs into the fight against copyright theft. Germany recently rejected such a move on privacy grounds.

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• THE final 30-day deadline imposed by America’s government on Chrysler to produce a survival plan expires on Thursday April 30th. Negotiations to secure a tie-up with Italy’s Fiat, a condition of securing further federal funds to keep the beleaguered carmaker in business, have been in high gear. But if Chrysler cannot persuade its unions and creditors to make big concessions the talks could founder and the only option will be bankruptcy for America’s third-biggest home-grown carmaker. Meanwhile Fiat is rumoured to be considering a take over of Opel, General Motors' European arm.

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From Economist.com

A big election in South Africa and other news of the coming days

• A LANDMARK election is held in South Africa on Wednesday April 22nd. The African National Congress, which has held office since the end of apartheid in 1994, is certain to dominate parliament again, and will probably retain its two-thirds majority, sufficient to alter the constitution. Attention will be paid to a new black-led opposition party, Congress of the People (COPE), which includes leading ANC figures who broke away from the ruling party in recent months. A strong electoral performance this year could indicate a more credible opposition movement is emerging in the country. The new parliament will in turn pick a new president: Jacob Zuma, the candidate of the ANC.

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• THE parlous state of America’s banks may not be wholly reflected when more results are released. Wells Fargo, which officially reports on the first quarter on Wednesday April 22nd, has said that it will make record profits, largely thanks to surging mortgage refinancing as interest rates have fallen. But it still holds a heap of assets at rose-tinted values and may need another $25 billion in capital. Morgan Stanley is expected to report a loss on Wednesday, largely thanks to having to mark its own debt to market values.

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• BRITAIN'S chancellor of the exchequer (finance minister), Alistair Darling, presents a budget on Wednesday April 22nd that is set to be laden with gloom. Mr Darling will be forced to announce ballooning debt and gloomier forecasts for the economy that are likely to mean that he must make spending cuts and raise taxes. Other measures are expected to give help to the jobless and savers hit by rock-bottom interest rates. The environment and beleaguered carmakers may benefit from a “cash for clunkers” scheme that will pay to encourage the scrapping of old and polluting cars.

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• THE World Bank and IMF hold their two-day spring meetings in Washington, DC, starting on Saturday April 25th. Finance and development ministers from member countries have had plenty of opportunity to talk recently at emergency meetings to discuss the world’s economic ills. These problems have thrust the IMF to the forefront of the struggle to save the world economy. The G20 made several recommendations for strengthening IMF and World Bank governance. The IMF may announce more takers for its precautionary credit line for emerging economies (Poland has become the second country, after Mexico, to ask for one), which would strengthen its claim to be more like an insurer of economies rather than its earlier role as a policeman.

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The coming days

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From Economist.com

A summit of the Americas, the start of India's election and other news

• GEORGE MITCHELL, America’s new special envoy, is scheduled to visit the Middle East, beginning on Monday April 13th. It will be Mr Mitchell’s first visit to Israel since Binyamin Netanyahu’s government took over at the start of the month. His job of advancing the Obama administration's goal of a “two-state solution” looks tricky. Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s incoming foreign minister, had said that his country is not bound by a previous deal to start negotiations on establishing a Palestinian state, although he has also said he would honour undertakings made by previous Israeli governments.

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• INDICATIONS of whether America's big banks are recovering from the damage wrought by the financial crisis should emerge when Goldman Sachs unveils its first-quarter results on Tuesday April 14th. The bank, which reported it first ever loss as a public company in the last quarter of 2008, is likely to make a profit based on reasonable performances at its fixed-income, currencies and commodities arms. Goldman is also hoping to return some $10 billion to America's government once a “stress test” to determine whether it has sufficient capital is complete.

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• FIGURES for China's first-quarter GDP, set for release on Thursday April 16th, will show the degree by which economic growth is slowing. China's economy expanded, according to official figures, by 6.8% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2008, a seven-year low, as exports dried up in the wake of the global economic downturn. Chinese forecasts reckon that the economy may only grow by 6.5% in the latest quarter, sharply lower than the 10.6% expansion in the first quarter of last year. China may hope that the effects of a big stimulus package announced in November will push growth back towards its target of 8% for the year. Some observers have cast doubt on the reliability of official Chinese growth figures.

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• BARACK OBAMA is set to drop in on neighbouring Mexico on Thursday April 16th. The American president visits his Mexican counterpart, Felipe Calderon, to discuss a range of mutual problems. Aside from talks about the global financial crisis the pair are sure to consider the problem of Mexico’s warring drug cartels and a spate of killings that threatens to spill over the border. Mr Obama and other leaders will have the chance to consider wider problems in central and Latin America later in the week when they attend the Summit of the Americas, starting on Friday April 17th.

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• A LONG and arduous general election gets under way in India, the world’s biggest democracy, on Thursday April 16th. The staggered elections, which stretch into mid-May, will give some 714m voters, 100m of whom are eligible to vote for the first time, the opportunity to chose candidates to fill 543 parliamentary seats. A coalition led by Congress, the closest India has to a party with national appeal, is likely to win the most seats but may not command a majority.

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The Week Ahead in the U.S.