Mr. Mismeasure

President Obama's census man plays the numberes game.

JOHN FUND

On Friday, Robert Groves, President Obama's choice to head the Census Bureau, will have his Senate confirmation hearing. His hearing is important because next year's Census has big political and economic ramifications, not only determining how House seats will be allocated among the states but also setting the formulas that will determine how huge amounts of federal dollars will flow.

That's why it's critical that Senators express clearly on the record concerns about the Census being politicized through questionable statistical manipulation. Recall the furor when GOP Senator Judd Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary after it became clear the White House would be exercising "oversight" over how the Census Bureau he would have supervised did its work. A continuing battle has concerned attempts to inject dubious statistical theories into the count. Mr. Groves, now a professor at the University of Michigan, himself unsuccessfully advocated statistically adjusting the Census when he was at the Census Bureau in 1990. He advised employing sampling techniques to create data for "missing" groups of people not picked up in the actual count.

The problem is that a 2003 study by the Census Bureau found that using "sampling" models to draw conclusions about "missing" people only subjected the Census to greater inaccuracy. Fears were raised that it would also encourage public distrust of the Census Bureau and its army of field examiners. The idea was scrapped, but many in the Democratic Party are keen to revive it. Mr. Groves should be vigorously questioned about his current views on the use of sampling.

In 1999, the Supreme Court determined that current law -- the 1980 Census Act -- prohibits use of sampling or statistical adjustment for reapportioning House seats among the states. However, the Court did not determine whether sampling is permitted under the Constitution, which it would be asked to do if Democrats amend the 1980 law, as many experts expect them to. Mr. Groves should be asked his opinion about changing existing law relating to the Census less than a year before it's scheduled to be taken.