China’s Premier Wen ‘Worried’

China’s Premier Wen ‘Worried’ on Safety of Treasuries (Update2)

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- China, the U.S. government’s largest creditor, is “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

White House National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers, asked about Wen’s remarks, said overseas “confidence” in Treasuries would be hurt without the administration’s steps to end the economy’s decline. President Barack Obama is relying on China to sustain buying of Treasuries amid record amounts of debt sales to fund a $787 billion stimulus package.

“China’s purchases of American debt have been one of the few bolts keeping the wheels on the global economy,” said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo. “If China stops buying, where does Obama’s borrowing to fund his stimulus come from?”

Treasuries declined after Wen’s remarks, before recouping the losses later. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes rose as high as 2.96 percent, from 2.85 percent late yesterday, and were at 2.83 percent at 12:27 p.m. in New York.

Loss on Treasuries

Treasuries have handed investors a loss of 2.7 percent in yuan terms this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master index. Chinese investors increased their holdings of the bonds 46 percent to $696 billion in 2008, according to U.S. Treasury data.

“Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets,” Wen said after the annual meeting of the legislature. “To be honest, I am a little bit worried.”

Summers said that taking “austerity” measures would be even worse for the economy and financial markets, which he said he tracks “very closely.” Answering questions after a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington, he said it’s “fiscally responsible” to implement measures in the near term that will restore longer-term growth.

China should seek to “fend off risks” as it diversifies its $1.95 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, Wen said. Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank, said in an interview on Feb. 10 that the nation should seek guarantees that its Treasury holdings won’t be eroded by “reckless policies.”

Haven Demand

Demand for the relative safety of Treasuries has been supported in the past two years as finance companies reported $1.2 trillion in credit losses. China boosted holdings of government debt as it lost of more than $5 billion from investing $10.5 billion of its reserves in New York-based Blackstone Group LP, Morgan Stanley and TPG Inc. since mid-2007.

Currency market moves have been more favorable to holding U.S. bonds this year. Chinese investors who bought Japanese government bonds would have lost 7.7 percent so far this year in yuan terms, compared with a 7.3 percent loss for holders of German bunds, according to the Merrill Lynch indexes.

“China won’t sell the U.S. debt now as that will only drive down Treasury prices, hurting not only the U.S. but also the value of its own investments,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong- based economist at China International Capital Corp., an investment bank partly owned by Morgan Stanley.

G-20 Meeting

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will defend his spending plans at the Group of 20 meeting near London this weekend. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Germany’s Peer Steinbrueck want the summit to focus on improving regulation and restraints on the finance industry.

The U.S. trade deficit and the government’s “nearly unrestricted” borrowing led to excess liquidity worldwide and “sowed the seeds” of the financial crisis, the People’s Bank of China said in a report today. The dollar has dropped 17 percent against the yuan since China ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. It was little changed at 6.8384 yuan today.

“China is worried that the U.S. may solve its problems by printing money, which will stoke inflation,” said Zhao Qingming, a Beijing-based analyst at China Construction Bank Corp., the country’s second-biggest lender. “If the U.S. can make sure this won’t happen, then China will continue to invest.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while visiting officials in Beijing on Feb. 22, urged China to continue buying U.S. debt, which she called a “safe investment.” She didn’t press China on its foreign-exchange policy, backing away from January comments by Geithner that the Chinese government manipulates its currency to boost exports.

Exchange Rates

China will maintain its policy of seeking a stable yuan, even as gains against the euro and Asian currencies hurt the nation’s exporters, Premier Wen said.

While the yuan has weakened 0.2 percent against the dollar this year, there has been a “drastic depreciation” in the euro and Asian currencies that has put a lot of pressure on Chinese exporters, Wen said. The currency has gained 8.6 percent against the euro this year and 6 percent against the Philippine peso.

“Our goal is to maintain a basically stable yuan at a balanced and reasonable level,” Wen said on the final day of the meeting of the National People’s Congress. “At the end of the day, it is our own decision and any other countries can’t press us to depreciate or appreciate our currency.”

Export Slump

Collapsing exports have dragged China’s economy to its weakest growth in seven years and eliminated the jobs of millions of migrant workers. Wen reaffirmed China’s target of an 8 percent expansion in 2009 as economies from the U.S. to Japan contract, saying the goal was “difficult but possible” to achieve.

China can add “at any time” to 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of stimulus measures to revive the world’s third-biggest economy, Wen said. Gross domestic product expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 9 percent for all of last year and 13 percent for 2007.

“We have reserved adequate ammunition,” Wen said, adding that the fiscal deficit is under control and the debt level still safe. “At any time, we can introduce new stimulus.”

Delegates of China’s legislative advisory body suggested that the government diversify away from Treasuries into more risky assets. Jesse Wang, executive vice president of China Investment Corp., said on March 4 that the nation’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund may invest in “undervalued” commodities.